First successful prediction of an underwater eruption

Sandrine Ceurstemont, video producer

What does the aftermath of an underwater volcanic eruption look like? At Axial Seamount off the Oregon coast, vents are releasing cloudy water months after the blast and the seafloor is covered in hardened lava (see video above).

Bill Chadwick from Oregon State University and Scott Nooner of Columbia University discovered this scene during an expedition last month to the area. But the find wasn't a complete surprise: the team had forecast the event, making it the first successful prediction of an undersea volcanic eruption.

"We now have evidence that Axial Seamount behaves in a more predictable way than many other volcanoes - likely due to its robust magma supply coupled with a thin crust and its location on a mid-ocean ridge spreading centre," says Nooner.

When the volcano erupted in 1998, the bottom of the crater subsided as magma moved upwards. The team predicted that it would erupt again once it attained the same level again. Based on a series of pressure measurements that showed the volcano was inflating, they forecast that this would happen before 2014, in a paper published in 2006.

"It is now the only volcano on the seafloor whose surface deformation has been continuously monitored throughout an entire eruption cycle," says Nooner.

According to an analysis of data from pressure recorders and hydrophones on the seafloor, the volcano erupted on April 6.

If you enjoyed this video, you may also like to see footage from the recent Mount Bromo eruption, captured from the rim, or see how robots can monitor an active volcano.

Source: http://feeds.newscientist.com/c/749/f/10897/s/177c04a9/l/0L0Snewscientist0N0Cblogs0Cnstv0C20A110C0A80Cfirst0Esuccessful0Eprediction0Eof0Ean0Eunderwater0Eeruption0Bhtml0DDCMP0FOTC0Erss0Gnsref0Fonline0Enews/story01.htm

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